@Article{AlvarezCoeOsmFirVer:2020:AsECSu,
               author = "Alvarez, M. S. and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and Osman, M. 
                         and Firpo, M{\'a}ri Andrea Feldman and Vera, C. S.",
          affiliation = "{Universidad de Buenos Aires} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidad de Buenos Aires} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidad de Buenos 
                         Aires}",
                title = "Assessment of ECMWF subseasonal temperature predictions for an 
                         anomalously cold week followed by an anomalously warm week in 
                         central and Southeastern South America during July 2017",
              journal = "Weather and Forecasting",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "35",
               number = "5",
                pages = "1871--1889",
                month = "Oct.",
             abstract = "The demand of subseasonal predictions (from one to about four 
                         weeks in advance) has been consid-erably increasing as these 
                         predictions can potentially help prepare for the occurrence of 
                         high-impact events such as heat or cold waves that affect both 
                         social and economic activities. This study aims to assess the 
                         subseasonal temperature prediction quality of the European Centre 
                         for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) against the Japan 
                         Meteorological Agency reanalyses. Two consecutive weeks of July 
                         2017 were analyzed, which presented anomalously cold and warm 
                         conditions over central South America. The quality of 20 years of 
                         hindcasts for the two investigated weeks was compared to that for 
                         similar weeks during the JJA season and of 3 years of real-time 
                         forecasts for the same season. Anomalously cold temperatures 
                         observed during the week of 1723 July 2017 were well predicted one 
                         week in advance. Moreover, the warm anomalies observed during the 
                         following week of 2430 July 2017 were well predicted two weeks in 
                         advance. Higher linear association and discrimination (ability to 
                         distinguish events from nonevents), but reduced reliability, was 
                         found for the 20 years of hindcasts for the target week than for 
                         the hindcasts produced for all of the JJA season. In addition, the 
                         real-time forecasts showed generally better performance over some 
                         regions of South America than the hindcasts. The assessment 
                         provides robust evidence about temperature prediction quality to 
                         build confidence in regional subseasonal forecasts as well as to 
                         identify regions in which the predictions have better 
                         performance.",
                  doi = "10.1175/WAF-D-19-0200.1",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0200.1",
                 issn = "0882-8156",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "alvarez_assessment.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}